Friday, 18 December 2009

Day 11 update

Hmm, this morning the BBC's Richard Black is reporting thus:

A deal appears to be in sight for the final day of the UN climate change talks but there are fears it may not prevent a 3C (5.4F) temperature rise.

Denmark's prime minister spoke of "very fruitful" talks as Copenhagen prepared to receive US President Barack Obama and 118 other world leaders.

Both the US and China, the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, have indicated they may make concessions.

It is hoped these may help overcome sharp divisions at the two-week talks.

China signalled concessions on the monitoring of emission curbs while the US said it would commit money for developing countries.

Denmark's Lars Lokke Rasmussen called late-night talks with a group of 26 influential world leaders on how to unblock negotiations.

"We discussed how we can make progress and we had a very fruitful, constructive dialogue... for almost two hours," he told reporters.

After the leaders left, their aides continued working on a political agreement for them to inspect later.

Which reminds modest-ol'-us of something we wrote in June or so 2008:

But there is almost certainly going to be a Deal. Even with a new American President, a new UK government (mebbe) and a new EU president, a deal Will Be Made. There'll be too many eyes on the game for anyone to want to be labelled as the wrecker. But in those circumstances the deal will probably be weak. LCD won't just stand for lowest common denominator, it'll also stand for Lousy Climate Deal.
No matter what, it will become harder to push the kind of radical emissions reductions-sink protections on climate change because the deal will be the only show in town with anything approaching democratic legitimacy. The world's denialists, coal lobbies, knuckle-draggers, knuckle-heads, volcano-nutters and China-baiters will all be trying to stop their own countries' legislatures signing it. Greens will be wanting to criticise the deal as too weak but still wanting it to be ratified. That's where the NGO energy will go, because it offers the best chance of lobbying ministers and appearing important to NGOs core constituency (guilt-ridden, ignorant, middle-class-people). Kyoto the Sequel, anyone?

But enough with the digressions already- here is the latest update as a pdf. And then as a jpg, with plain text underneath...

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